How Many Democratic Seats in the House of Representatives
Pennsylvania was typical of those states where Republicans benefited in 2012 from the decennial redrawing of congressional district lines. Autonomous candidates drew more than one-half of the full votes cast statewide for the U.Southward. House last fall, but Republicans won nigh 3–quarters (13 of xviii) of Pennsylvania's congressional seats. The GOP–controlled state government canonical a map that packed Democratic votes into the five districts that they carried, where the party'southward candidates posted winning percentages ranging from 60% to 89% of the total vote. Meanwhile, the Republican vote was spread more broadly, with ix of the GOP winners drawing less than 60% of the vote in their districts.
Source: Rhodes–Cook Letter, Feb. 2013
How to: This table shows the GOP and Democratic victories in Pennsylvania by how much of the vote the winning candidates won. Vote percentages are based on full votes cast.
Use the Race Competitiveness tool to look at House winners with various vote ranges from 1968 to 2010. You can likewise cull other offices.
Document Outline
Republicans Win Fewer Votes, but More Seats than Democrats
Republicans Win Fewer Votes, only More Seats than Democrats
Republicans controlled the post–2010 redistricting process in the four states, and drew new lines that helped the GOP win the bulk of the House delegation in each. Republicans captured 13 of 18 seats in Pennsylvania, 12 of xvi in Ohio, nine of 14 in Michigan, and v of 8 in Wisconsin. Added together, that was 39 seats for the Republicans and 17 seats for the Democrats in the four pro–Obama states.
The cardinal to GOP congressional success was to cluster the Autonomous vote into a scattering of districts, while spreading out the Republican vote elsewhere. In Pennsylvania, for case, Republicans won nine of their 13 House seats with less than 60% of the vote, while Democrats carried 3 of their five with more than than 75%.
One of the latter was the Philadelphia–based 2nd District, where 356,386 votes for Congress were tallied. Not only was it the highest number of ballots cast in whatsoever district in the country, but Democratic Rep. Chaka Fattah won 318,176 of the votes. It was the largest number received by any Business firm candidate in the country in 2012, Democrat or Republican. If some of these Democratic votes had been "unclustered" and distributed to other districts nearby, the party might have won a couple more than seats in the Philadelphia area alone.
As it was, Democrats scored a moral victory of sorts by winning the amass nationwide House vote by nearly 1.4 million. Ordinarily, it is a number that does not take much currency, a matter of interest merely to academics and political mavens. Simply in 2012, the Democrats' "popular vote" victory in the Business firm balloting helped to undermine the contention of congressional Republicans their majority was as much a mandate as President Obama's 5–meg vote, 26– state, 332–electoral vote reelection victory.
The claiming at present for Firm Democrats is to turn moral victories into bodily triumphs. It will not be easy. The Republicans head toward 2022 offering fiddling in the manner of "low hanging fruit." Only fifteen House Republicans are in hostile terrain, representing districts that also voted for Obama final fall. And few GOP representatives requite the appearance of electoral weakness, as just a dozen were elected in 2012 by a margin of less than 5 percentage points.
The list includes erstwhile Republican presidential candidate, Michele Bachmann, who won reelection in her Minnesota district terminal fall past a margin of barely 1 percentage point. It was her narrowest congressional victory since she beginning won the seat in 2006. Just few other Republican winners in 2012 were so hard pressed as Bachmann. Democrats would need a stiff wind at their back to score a breakthrough in the House someday soon, an unlikely occurrence for the party of the president in a midterm ballot. More likely, little will happen in 2022 to disturb the Republicans' championship every bit "the congressional political party."
If Democrats in 2022 could just win the dozen House seats that they lost last autumn by a margin of less than 5 percentage points, they would be on the verge of a Firm majority. On the other hand, the GOP has plenty of targets of their own, with Democrats belongings 17 House seats that they carried in 2012 past less than 5 points.
The Closest House Races of 2012
NARROW DEMOCRATIC WINNERS
| Winner | Winner's Condition in '12 | % of Vote | Victory Margin (in % points) | |
| Mike McIntyre | (D-N.C. 7) | Incumbent | fifty.1% | 0.ii% |
| Jim Matheson | (D-Utah 4) | Incumbent | 48.8% | 0.3% |
| Patrick Murphy | (D-Fla. 18) | Challenger | 50.3% | 0.vi% |
| Ron Barber | (D-Ariz. 2) | Incumbent | fifty.4% | 0.viii% |
| Brad Schneider | (D-Sick. 10) | Challenger | 50.six% | 1.2% |
| John Tierney | (D-Mass. vi) | Incumbent | 48.iii% | 1.2% |
| Beak Owens | (D-N.Y. 21) | Incumbent | 50.1% | one.ix% |
| Elizabeth Esty | (D-Conn. 5) | Open Seat | 51.3% | 2.6% |
| Ami Bera | (D-Calif. vii) | Challenger | 51.7% | 3.4% |
| Scott Peters | (D-Calif. 52) | Challenger | 51.2% | three.4% |
| Ann Kirkpatrick | (D-Ariz. one) | Open up Seat | 48.viii% | 3.7% |
| Carol Shea-Porter | (D-N.H. i) | Challenger | 49.viii% | 3.8% |
| Sean Maloney | (D-N.Y. 18) | Challenger | 51.9% | three.ix% |
| Krysten Sinema | (D-Ariz. 9) | Open up Seat | 48.seven% | four.ane% |
| Pete Gallego | (D-Texas 23) | Challenger | 50.3% | 4.vii% |
| Ann Kuster | (D-N.H. ii) | Challenger | 50.2% | 4.9% |
| Tim Bishop | (D-N.Y. 1) | Incumbent | 52.4% | 4.9% |
| Source: Based on official results posted on the spider web sites of state election regime. | ||||
NARROW REPUBLICAN WINNERS
| Winner | Winner'south Condition in '12 | % of Vote | Victory Margin (in % points) | |
| Rodney Davis | (R-Sick. 13) | Open up Seat | 46.v% | 0.3% |
| Dan Benishek | (R-Mich. one) | Incumbent | 48.1% | 0.5% |
| Michele Bachmann | (R-Minn. 6) | Incumbent | l.five% | 1.2% |
| Jackie Walorski | (R-Ind. 2) | Open Seat | 49.0% | ane.4% |
| Lee Terry | (R-Neb. 2) | Incumbent | 50.8% | 1.half dozen% |
| Chris Collins | (R-N.Y. 27) | Challenger | 50.8% | 1.6% |
| Mike Coffman | (R-Colo. 6) | Incumbent | 47.8% | 2.0% |
| Daniel Webster | (R-Fla. 10) | Incumbent | 51.vii% | three.4% |
| Keith Rothfus | (R-Pa. 12) | Challenger | 51.7% | 3.four% |
| Thomas Reed | (R-N.Y. 23) | Incumbent | 51.nine% | three.eight% |
| Andy Barr | (R-Ky. 6) | Challenger | 50.6 | 3.ix% |
| Jim Renacci | (R-Ohio sixteen) | Incumbent | 52.0% | 4.0% |
| Source: Based on official results posted on the web sites of land election government. | ||||
Document Citation
Cook, R. (2013). Republicans win fewer votes, merely more seats than Democrats. http://library.cqpress.com/elections
Document ID: rcookltr-1527-84193-2523552
Document URL: http://library.cqpress.com/elections/rcookltr-1527-84193-2523552
Source: https://library.cqpress.com/elections/document.php?id=rcookltr-1527-84193-2523552
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